How to Tell if a Sale Price Is Actually a Deal

The percent-off badge is the least trustworthy number on the page. A store that shows "$199, was $349" is telling you two things: the price it wants today, and a price it picked to make today's price look good. Only one of those is real, and it is not always the crossed-out one.

Here is the short version. A discount is worth taking when the price you pay is low compared to what the item normally sells for, not compared to a number the seller chose. So judge the sale price and its history, and treat the strike-through price as marketing until you have checked it.

Why the crossed-out price often means nothing

Retailers lean on two kinds of "before" prices, and both can be inflated.

The first is a manufacturer's suggested retail price, or MSRP, sometimes shown as "list price." A suggested price is just that: a suggestion. Under the Federal Trade Commission's guidance, a list or suggested price should reflect prices at which the item is actually sold in the area, not a high number no one really charges (see 16 CFR Part 233). When almost every seller sits well below the "list price" all year, that list price is a ceiling for marketing, not a real former price.

The second is a "former price," the store's own earlier price. The FTC's rules say a former price should be a genuine price the item was offered at, openly and for a reasonably substantial period, in the recent course of business. Raising a price briefly, or setting one you never really sold at, just so you can slash it later, is what the guidance calls a fictitious former price. The "bargain" it creates is not a bargain at all.

Fake discounts are common enough to end up in court

You do not have to take this on faith. Regulators and courts have pushed back on inflated reference prices for years.

California has one of the strictest rules. Its Business and Professions Code Section 17501 says a price cannot be advertised as a former price unless it was the prevailing market price within the three months right before the ad, or the ad clearly states the date that former price applied. Other states draw the line differently. A 2025 legal overview from the law firm K&L Gates notes that Oregon looks at the 30 days before a sale and New Jersey at 28 of the prior 90 days, and it points to a wave of class actions over strike-through pricing (K&L Gates, April 2025).

The examples are not small. That same overview cites a $50 million J.C. Penney settlement in 2015 and a $6.8 million Overstock.com penalty in 2014 tied to comparison-price claims. More recently, furniture seller Arhaus agreed to a $6 million settlement to resolve claims that it showed artificially high reference prices next to sale prices to make discounts look bigger than they were, covering California online purchases from April 2020 to September 2024 (ClassAction.org). Settlements like these usually resolve the claims without a court ruling that the company broke the law, but the pattern is clear: inflated "was" prices are common enough to sue over.

A five-step check before you buy

You do not need to know the law to shop well. You need a habit.

1. Look up the price history. For anything sold on Amazon, tools like Keepa show a chart of how a product's price has moved over months, so you can see the real average and the true low rather than the seller's "was" number (Keepa). If today's price sits near the top of that chart, a big percent-off badge does not make it a deal. DealGeek's guide to price-tracking tools and browser extensions walks through setting these up.

2. Compare the exact model at other stores. Match the full model number, capacity, color, and condition, not just the product name. If three other retailers sell the same unit for close to the "sale" price, the discount is mostly on paper.

3. Treat MSRP and list price as marketing. A discount measured against a suggested price tells you what the maker hoped to charge, not what the item is worth today. Measure against the street price instead.

4. Add up the real cost. A lower sticker can hide a higher total. Factor in shipping, any coupon, membership, or trade-in you must have to get the price, and the return policy if the item does not work out. A deal that requires a subscription you will forget to cancel is not the price shown.

5. Ignore the countdown clock. Timers, "only 3 left," and "deal ends tonight" are designed to stop you from doing steps one through four. A price that is genuinely good will still be good after ten minutes of checking.

When a small discount beats a big one

Reframe what a good deal looks like. Ten percent off an item sitting at its lowest price of the year is a better buy than fifty percent off an item whose "regular" price was invented last week. The size of the discount describes the seller's math. The price you pay, checked against real history and real competitors, describes your outcome. Trust the second one.

This also cuts the other way. A modest, quiet markdown on a product that rarely goes on sale can be the real find, even without a flashy badge.

During October's sale events, verify first

Amazon, Walmart, and Target are all running competing sale events this October, and other retailers will follow. Big traffic tends to bring more aggressive reference pricing, so the season that promises the deepest discounts is also when the "was" prices deserve the most doubt. Before you add anything to a cart during a sale event, run the five-step check. If a price truly is the lowest it has been, the history will show it. If it is not, no badge will change that. For broader tactics beyond spotting fake prices, see DealGeek's money-saving tips for smart shoppers.

FAQ

Is strike-through pricing illegal? No, not by itself. Showing a higher "regular" price next to a lower sale price is legal when the higher price is a genuine, recent selling price. It becomes a problem when the "former" price was inflated or never really charged, which is what the FTC guidance and state laws target.

Do price-history tools work outside of Amazon? The best-known ones, Keepa and CamelCamelCamel, are built around Amazon. For other stores, there is no single history chart, so lean on step two: compare the exact model across several retailers to find the real going rate.

Does a higher MSRP mean a better product? No. A suggested retail price is set by the maker and can be high for marketing reasons. Judge quality by specifications, warranty, and independent reviews, not by how large the crossed-out number is.